On June 24, Manifold Markets user Predictor posted an interesting question: "Will the up arrow on this question be hit more times than the down arrow?" Little did they know, a few very determined users would make this market a battleground.
For some context, Manifold had introduced a new feature not long prior: quick bets. Quick bets allowed a user to bet on any market from the front page without the hassle of clicking through and typing in a specific amount. Quick bets always trade in M\$10 increments - this is a nice even number, which makes it very distinctive when you see a chain of 10-mana bets in a row. Some market creators capitalized on this by only counting quick bets - they would count *just* the number of \$10 bets, and resolve based on those counts. Was this useful? Who's to say? It was certainly interesting. After one market, they made another, and then a third, and then a fourth. The fourth one broke the site.
You may have noticed that the link above doesn't work. Or at least, it doesn't as of this writing. There were 15,304 bets placed before the market closed, and loading all of them exceeds the server limits causing the page to error out. Thankfully we can still query the database directly and grab those numbers, giving us a few stats to play with. There's a lot going on here, so we've also got some commentary from two of the main parties involved: Adrian (@ahalekelly) and @GeorgeVii.